Monday, November 7, 2016

BTRTN's Official Predictions: Hillary Clinton Wins Historic Race; Dems Take Back Senate (Barely); GOP Maintains Firm Control of House and State Houses

At long last Election Day has arrived.  In just five hours, voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire will cast the first ballots in the election.  And when most of the ballots are counted nationwide, this “long national nightmare” of a race, unprecedented in venom, punctuated with sordid disclosures, October surprises galore, and a November one to boot, will finally end.  The revelation from FBI Director James Comey that he had found, in a “new“ trove of emails, absolutely nothing at all (simply a combination of duplicated or irrelevant emails) came too late to flip the election back to the large margins Clinton enjoyed before their discovery.  But it may have helped solidify the outcome and perhaps affect a swing state or two. 

Before we render our final predictions at BTRTN, a few notes:

·       These are our final predictions, but we reserve the right to read a final straggler poll or two tomorrow morning and amend as necessary.  Failure to do so in 2012 cost us Florida, the only state we missed in an otherwise unblemished presidential prediction.
·        If any reader wants our handy, dandy semi-famous spreadsheets that allow you to easily track Election Night outcomes for each of the presidential, Senate, House and Governor races (and see how we are doing against our predictions), just email us at tom@obameter2012.com and we will send them along to you.  Our past users swear by them!

On to the predictions, and here are the headlines:

·       Hillary Clinton will become our 45th President, and our first woman president, beating Donald Trump comfortably with a 322-216 electoral vote margin.  We have her winning the popular vote 49.3% to 46.8%, with Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullin picking off 3.8% of the vote.
·        Clinton will get to work with a Democratic majority in the Senate, as the Dems (barely) take back the Senate 50/50, with new Vice President Tim Kaine wielding the gavel in the event of ties, and with Chuck Schumer, Clinton’s one-time colleague as Senators from New York, as Senate Majority Leader.  But we won’t know the final Senate outcome for quite some time, as it will all come down to a few races that are extraordinarily close.
·        Clinton will have to deal with a GOP-controlled House, as the Dems pick up a net of only 5 seats, very modestly chipping away at a still formidable GOP advantage of 242-193, short of gaining control by 25 seats.  Again, the exact number will take days to sort out, as invariably some House races may take days to settle, and some may even end up with recounts or in courts.
·        And the GOP will continue to dominate the state houses; by winning 4 of the 12 gubernatorial races they will hold their 32-17 advantage (with one independent) in governors.

For new readers, here is a summary of BTRTN's track record in national elections over the years.  We believe our record stands with anyone’s!

Election
2008
2010
2012
2014
Total
Total %
Presidential (states)
48/50
n/a
49/50
n/a
97/100
97.0%
Senate
35/35
33/36
31/33
32/36
131/140
93.6%
House
n/a
420/435
416/435
425/435
1261/1305
96.6%
Governors
n/a
n/a
n/a
31/36
31/36
86.1%
TOTAL

96.1%

This will be a closer race than in 2012.  We see 11 races that will be decided by 5 points or less versus 6 in 2012.  Obama ended up beating Romney by 3.9 percentage points in the popular vote.  We have Clinton beating Trump by a mere 2.5 points.

But for those of you who still have doubts that Clinton will win, we offer you these “macro” stats.  Of 94 national polls taken since September 1, Clinton has led in 77, Trump in 11, with 7 ties.  And if you take the LA Times tracking poll out, which is a notoriously self-evident outlier, the numbers are even more one-sided at 77-2-5.

And if you are curious/nervous about the same figures post-Comey’s-First-Letter, there have been 14 polls since October 28 and Clinton is 12-1-1 in them, with the one losing poll being, of course, by the LA Times.  We are fond of saying that “national polls don’t matter,” but the fact is, such an overwhelming lead in national polls is not consistent with widespread swing state defeats.

THE PREDICTIONS

President

Hillary Clinton will hold onto the four “Toss-up D” states that she needed to push over the 270 barrier and provide a cushion had she lost some of them:  Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire, all of which had margins of three points or less in the final days.  A combination of Comey First Letter damage running its course as last week wore on; the Comey Second Letter announcement on Sunday; and the massive Clinton ground game, ad blitz and surrogate brigade, will combine to build a different kind of wall that will keep Donald Trump out of the White House.

Trump, for his part, will manage to hold onto Ohio in a late-night squeaker, plus states he should have won easily, Georgia, Arizona and Utah, and he will manage to pick-off Obama’s Iowa.

Clinton will be put over the top at 11:35 PM when CNN calls Michigan in her favor.  (We have a very sloppy method of predicting this timing so don’t be surprised if we are well off!)

Here is how every state will go….who will win, by what margin, and at what time it will be “called” by CNN.  (We have no prediction for Trump’s concession speech – whether he does one and, if so, at what time -- or what he will say.) 

BTRTN PREDICTION
Popular Vote %
Electoral Votes
Time race called (EST)
Clinton
Trump
Margin
Clinton
Trump
States
2016 Electoral Votes
Close Races to Watch
Polls Close (Latest)
49.3%
46.8%
2.5%
322
213

Indiana
11

7:00
41%
51%
-10%

11
7:00
Kentucky
8

7:00
40%
58%
-18%

8
7:00
Vermont
3

7:00
62%
32%
30%
3

7:00
W. Virginia
5

7:30
33%
63%
-30%

5
7:30
Alabama
9

8:00
38%
58%
-20%

9
8:00
Connecticut
7

8:00
54%
42%
12%
7

8:00
DC
3

8:00
89%
10%
79%
3

8:00
Delaware
3

8:00
56%
39%
17%
3

8:00
Illinois
20

8:00
56%
40%
16%
20

8:00
Maryland
10

8:00
62%
36%
26%
10

8:00
Massachusetts
11

8:00
61%
33%
28%
11

8:00
Mississippi
6

8:00
43%
55%
-12%

6
8:00
Oklahoma
7

8:00
35%
60%
-25%

7
8:00
Rhode Island
4

8:00
55%
41%
14%
4

8:00
Tennessee
11

8:00
42%
54%
-12%

11
8:00
Arkansas
6

8:30
39%
59%
-20%

6
8:30
Kansas
6

9:00
40%
56%
-16%

6
9:00
Louisiana
8

9:00
42%
56%
-14%

8
9:00
N. Dakota
3

9:00
35%
59%
-24%

3
9:00
Nebraska
5

9:00
37%
59%
-22%

5
9:00
New Mexico
5

9:00
48%
40%
8%
5

9:00
New York
29

9:00
58%
37%
21%
29

9:00
S. Dakota
3

9:00
38%
57%
-19%

3
9:00
Wyoming
3

9:00
28%
65%
-37%

3
9:00
Texas
38

9:00
43%
53%
-10%

38
9:00
Maine
4

8:00
52%
45%
7%
3
1
9:15
Wisconsin
10

9:00
53%
45%
8%
10

9:15
New Jersey
14

8:00
55%
43%
12%
14

9:25
S. Carolina
9

7:00
45%
51%
-6%

9
9:40
Montana
3

10:00
39%
53%
-14%

3
10:00
Pennsylvania
20

8:00
51%
47%
4%
20

10:05
New Hampshire
4

8:00
50%
46%
4%
4

10:10
Missouri
10

8:00
43%
53%
-10%

10
10:20
Georgia
16

7:00
47%
49%
-2%

16
10:30
Minnesota
10

9:00
52%
43%
9%
10

10:35
Virginia
13

7:00
51%
46%
5%
13

10:45
Utah
6

10:00
26%
38%
-12%

6
10:50
California
55

11:00
60%
38%
22%
55

11:00
Hawaii
4

11:00
58%
36%
22%
4

11:00
Idaho
4

11:00
37%
57%
-20%

4
11:00
Washington
12

11:00
56%
42%
14%
12

11:00
N. Carolina
15

7:30
49%
48%
1%
15

11:05
Iowa
6

10:00
46%
51%
-5%

6
11:20
Oregon
7

11:00
53%
43%
10%
7

11:25
Michigan
16

8:00
50%
47%
3%
16

11:35
Arizona
11

9:00
45%
49%
-4%

11
11:45
Florida
29

8:00
50.5%
49.0%
1.5%
29

12:15
Ohio
18

7:30
48%
49%
-1%

18
12:55
Colorado
9

9:00
48%
45%
3%
9

13:15
Nevada
6

10:00
49.5%
48.5%
1.0%
6

14:25
Alaska
3

13:00
42%
50%
-8%

3
15:15

Senate

Even we have to admit that control of the Senate is almost impossible to predict.  There are six races that are Toss-ups now, each within a 2-point or less margin.  New Hampshire is impossibly tight, and Nevada, Missouri and Pennsylvania are only slightly more definitively tilting one way or the other.  Indiana and Missouri offer further clues still – but all six are classic Toss-ups.

BTRTN calls New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania in the Dem camp, and those wins will be just enough to eke out 50 states and, with the Clinton win, give the Dems control of the Senate.  It won’t happen early.  Make plenty of coffee and bring snacks to await this outcome.

BTRTN PREDICTION
Dem
GOP
State
Inc. Party
Dem
GOP
Poll Margin as of 11/7
BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7
50
50
Not running





36
30
California
D
Harris
Sanchez (D)

Solid D
1

New York
D
Schumer
Long

Solid D
1

Maryland
D
Van Hollen
Szeliga

Solid D
1

Hawaii
D
Schatz
Carroll

Solid D
1

Oregon
D
Wyden
Callaghan

Solid D
1

Vermont
D
Leahy
Milne

Solid D
1

Connecticut
D
Blumenthal
Carter

Solid D
1

Washington
D
Murray
Vance

Solid D
1

Colorado
D
Bennet
Glenn

Solid D
1

Illinois
R
Duckworth
Kirk

Solid D
1

Wisconsin
R
Feingold
Johnson
D + 2
Toss-up D
1

Pennsylvania
R
McGinty
Toomey
D + 2
Toss-up D
1

Nevada
D
Cortez Masto
Heck
D + 2
Toss-up D
1

New Hamp.
R
Hassan
Ayotte
D + 0
Toss-up D
1

Missouri
R
Kander
Blunt
R + 0
Toss-up R

1
N. Carolina
R
Ross
Burr
R + 1
Toss-up R

1
Indiana
R
Bayh
Young
R + 4
Lean R

1
Florida
R
Murphy
Rubio

Solid R

1
Kentucky
R
Gray
Paul

Solid R

1
Ohio
R
Strickland
Portman

Solid R

1
Arkansas
R
Eldridge
Boozman

Solid R

1
Iowa
R
Judge
Grassley

Solid R

1
Georgia
R
Barksdale
Isakson

Solid R

1
Kansas
R
Wiesner
Moran

Solid R

1
S. Carolina
R
Dixon
Scott

Solid R

1
Arizona
R
Kirkpatrick
McCain

Solid R

1
Utah
R
Snow
Lee

Solid R

1
N. Dakota
R
Grassheim
Hoeven

Solid R

1
Oklahoma
R
Workman
Lankford

Solid R

1
S. Dakota
R
Williams
Thune

Solid R

1
Alabama
R
Crumpton
Shelby

Solid R

1
Alaska
R
Metcalfe
Murkowski

Solid R

1
Idaho
R
Sturgill
Crapo

Solid R

1
Louisiana
R
  24 cand.'s
Dec runoff

Solid R

1

House

The Dems will fall well short of a "wave" to regain control, picking up only five seats, perhaps the true casualty of the Comey escapade.  The Dems might have picked up 15-20 had it not been for the downballot fall-out from the first letter.

Below are listed just the 49 races that we consider competitive.

BTRTN PREDICTION
Proj. Dem
Proj. GOP
State
Dist.
Incumbent (188 D- 237 R)
BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7
193
242
188 D - 247 R





New York
3
D
Likely D
1

California
24
D
Lean D
1

California
7
D
Lean D
1

Florida
13
R
Lean D
1

Nevada
4
R
Lean D
1

New Hampshire
1
R
Lean D
1

Arizona
1
D
Lean D
1

Minnesota
2
R
Toss-up D
1

Minnesota
8
D
Toss-up D
1

Nebraska
2
D
Toss-up D
1

Iowa
1
R
Toss-up D
1

Nevada
3
R
Toss-up R

1
New Jersey
5
R
Toss-up R

1
Florida
18
D
Toss-up R

1
Illinois
10
R
Toss-up R

1
Texas
23
R
Toss-up R

1
Florida
26
R
Toss-up R

1
Maine
2
R
Toss-up R

1
New York
19
R
Toss-up R

1
New York
22
R
Toss-up R

1
Pennsylvania
8
R
Toss-up R

1
California
49
R
Toss-up R

1
Colorado
6
R
Toss-up R

1
Virginia
10
R
Toss-up R

1
Florida
7
R
Toss-up R

1
California
10
R
Toss-up R

1
Michigan
1
R
Toss-up R

1
New York
1
R
Toss-up R

1
Kansas
3
R
Toss-up R

1
California
25
R
Toss-up R

1
Iowa
3
R
Lean R

1
New York
24
R
Lean R

1
Utah
4
R
Lean R

1
Michigan
7
R
Lean R

1
Minnesota
3
R
Lean R

1
Wisconsin
8
R
Lean R

1
California
21
R
Lean R

1
Indiana
9
R
Lean R

1
Pennsylvania
16
R
Likely R

1
Virginia
5
R
Likely R

1
Alaksa
1
R
Likely R

1
Arizona
2
R
Likely R

1
Colorado
3
R
Likely R

1
Michigan
8
R
Likely R

1
Montana
1
R
Likely R

1
New York
23
R
Likely R

1
Illinois
12
R
Likely R

1
Indiana
2
R
Likely R

1
New York
21
R
Likely R

1

Governors

This is a bit of an off-year for State Houses, with only 12 races in total.  And despite the fact that the Dems have only 18 Governors overall, there was little chance for change, since 8 of them were up for reelection, versus only 4 of the 31 Republicans governors (there is one Independent Governor, in Alaska, and he is not up for reelection). 

With such a stacked deck, we see the GOP holding serve, continuing to hold 31 Governorships to 18 for the Dems. 

The big action here will be in 2018, when there will be 36 state houses on the line – heading into the 2020 census which will guide congressional redistricting, and the next round of gerrymandering games.  Those who control state houses and legislatures dictate those terms, with huge national implications.

BTRTN PREDICTION
Proj. Dem
Proj. GOP
State
Inc. Party
GOP
GOP
Poll Margin as of 11/7
BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7
8
4
Delaware
D
Carney
Bonini

Solid D
1

Oregon
D
Brown
Pierce

Solid D
1

Washington
D
Inslee
Bryant

Solid D
1

New Hamp.
D
Sununu
Ostern
D + 11
Lean D
1

Indiana
R
Gregg
Holcomb
D + 4
Lean D
1

N. Carolina
R
Cooper
McCrory
D + 2
Toss-up D
1

Missouri
D
Koster
Greitens
D + 2
Toss-up D
1

Montana
D
Bullock
Gianforte
D + 1
Toss-up D
1

Vermont
D
Minter
Scott
R + 2
Toss-up R

1
W. Virginia
D
Justice
Cole
R + 6
Lean R

1
N. Dakota
R
Nelson
Burgum

Solid R

1
Utah
R
Weinholtz
Herbert

Solid R

1

There you go…our predictions for all 538 races (55 separate presidential electoral vote races including the 50 states, the District of Columbia and two congressional districts in each of Maine and Nebraska; 36 Senate races; 12 Governors and all 435 House seats) that will dictate the state of our world for the next decade or more.  But that future could hang on just one of them, whether it is Florida or North Carolina or Michigan or the tiny second Congressional District in Maine, and that one race could be decided in the wee hours of the night, or even later.  Get out to vote tomorrow, make some calls, and  then fasten your seat belts for an historic night.


1 comment:

  1. Well you got the EC within 100 votes.

    ReplyDelete

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