Tuesday, November 1, 2016

One Week To Go! BTRTN's Complete Up-To-The-Minute 50-State Electoral College, Senate and House Snapshots

One week to go in this incredible campaign and, on cue, the presidential is tightening, and control of the Senate is up for grabs.  BTRTN is on the record with our conviction that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency (see our article yesterday for all that) and our final official “prediction” for all races will be published Monday night by 8 PM EST.  For now, let’s dive in on the Snapshots with six days and five hours to go before Dixville Notch weighs in.  Full reports on the presidential race, all the Senate races and our view of the House below.

Presidency

Hillary Clinton is in command.  While there is evidence that Comey-Gate has tightened the race a bit, she is not in peril.  But she does have to deliver the goods, and her vaunted ground game is in full swing.

The race was tightening before Comey-gate, as the last few weeks’ national polls demonstrate.  Trump’s disastrous first half of October was fading and the race had fallen back, even in the days before Comey released his infamous letter, to the 4-6 point range that has characterized the very few “quiet” periods when neither candidate was getting pilloried for one offense or another. 

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Wk. Ending
Sep 24
Oct 1
Oct 8
Oct 15
Oct 24
Oct 31
Clinton
46.5
47.0
48.3
49.1
49.3
48.2
Trump
43.3
42.5
42.7
40.5
42.4
43.6
Other/NA
10.2
10.5
9.0
10.4
8.3
8.2
Margin
3.2
4.5
5.6
8.6
6.8
4.7

At the all-important state level lies more evidence of a closer race.  We have moved Colorado from Solid to Lean for Clinton, puncturing a small hole in her Solid Wall, which had comprised 272 Solids last week – two over the required 270 to win – but is now back to 263.  But North Carolina has moved from a Toss-up to a Lean for Clinton.   Both states are in the +4 range for Clinton both pre- and post-Comey, and while we call that a Lean, it is awfully hard to move the needle by that much at this stage.  All she needs is one of them to seal the deal.

We have also moved Toss-ups Ohio and Arizona from Clinton to Trump.  The margins in all the Toss-Ups, which also include Florida, Nevada and Iowa (the last a move from Lean R) are incredibly tight.  But Clinton does not need ANY of them to win.

Trump’s path to 270 is virtually impossible at this point, barring the discovery of some “smoking gun” email (which has not emerged in the massive investigation to date).  He needs to hold onto to Utah and Georgia, both of which any self-respecting GOP presidential candidate would have locked up long ago.   Then he has to sweep all five Toss-ups, and finally somehow manage to take North Carolina and Colorado. 

So, of course, Trump is spending some precious final weeks campaign time in, um, Washington, DC (for a hotel opening) and Michigan.  Go figure.

So, in our one-week-to-go look, our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #8 still has Clinton up 323-215.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
Oct 23
Oct 31
CLINTON - TOTAL
351
323
Clinton - Solid
272
263
Clinton - Lean
35
25
Clinton - Tossup
44
35
Trump - Tossup
7
41
Trump - Lean
83
38
Trump - Solid
97
136
TRUMP - TOTAL
187
215



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls as of Oct 31
BTRTN Rating
Colorado (9)
Clinton +4
Lean D
N. Carolina (15)
Clinton +4
Lean D
Maine CD2 (1)
Clinton +3
Lean D
Florida (29)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Nevada (6)
Clinton +0
Toss-up D
Iowa (6)
Trump +0
Toss-up R
Ohio (18)
Trump +1
Toss-up R
Arizona (11)
Trump +1
Toss-up R
Utah (6)
Trump +3
Lean R
Georgia (16)
Trump +3
Lean R


The full 50-state rack-up is down at the bottom, after we get through the rest.

SENATE

The fate of the Senate continues to spin around five races that are virtual dead-heats.  This BTRTN Senate Snapshot #7 has the Dems up 51/49, but it simply could not be any closer.  Marco Rubio has locked down Florida at his point, giving the GOP another Solid, and the Indiana race has gotten much closer, moving from a Lean D to a Toss-up D.  We will be up all night on Election night for these, and control of the Senate might not be understood for days…or even into December for the Louisiana run-off election.  A Democrat is currently in second in the open primary on Election Day, meaning that we might have a two-party match-up in the December run-off…though the GOP candidate will certainly be favored.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate
October 22
October 31
DEM TOTAL
50 (+4)
51 (+5)
Dem Holdover
36
36
Dem Solid
11
11
Dem Lean
1
1
Dem Toss-up
2
3
GOP Toss-up
3
2
GOP Lean
1
0
GOP Solid
16
17
GOP Holdover
30
30
GOP TOTAL
50 (-4)
49 (-5)



Senate By State
Latest Polls as of Oct 31
BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,IL, MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA, WI

Solid D
Pennsylvania
McGinty (D) +5
Lean D
Indiana
Bayh (D) +1
Toss-up D
Nevada
CortezMatso (D)+0
Toss-up D
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) +0
Toss-up D
N. Carolina
Burr (R) + 1
Toss-up R
Missouri
Blunt (R) + 1
Toss-up R
AK,AL,AZ,FL,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD

Solid R


HOUSE

The Dems’ race to take over the House appears to have stalled, as the Generic Ballot has them up only 3.5 points, a slight pullback from last week.  Thus our proprietary BTRTN regression model is predicting only a 13 seat pick-up for the Dems, less than half of the 30 seats they need to turn the House blue.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House
As of Oct 22
As of Oct 31
Generic Ballot
Dem + 4.1
Dem + 3.5



Democrats
204 (+16)
201 (+13)
Republicans
231 (-16)
234 (-13)

Stay tuned as we head down to the wire…look for our Election Day official forecast on Monday, November 8th at 8:00 PM EST.

‘***************************************
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT

2016 Electoral Votes
2012 Margin    (D-R)
Latest 2016 Polls as of 10/30/16
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/24/16
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/31/16
DC
3
84

Solid
Solid
Hawaii
4
43

Solid
Solid
Maryland
10
25

Solid
Solid
Massachusetts
11
23

Solid
Solid
Vermont
3
36

Solid
Solid
California
55
21

Solid
Solid
New York
29
27

Solid
Solid
Washington
12
14

Solid
Solid
Illinois
20
16

Solid
Solid
New Jersey
14
17

Solid
Solid
Delaware
3
19

Solid
Solid
New Mexico
5
10

Solid
Solid
Oregon
7
12

Solid
Solid
Connecticut
7
18

Solid
Solid
Rhode Island
4
27

Solid
Solid
Maine (St. & CD1)
3
15

Solid
Solid
Minnesota
10
8

Solid
Solid
Virginia
13
3

Solid
Solid
Michigan
16
10

Solid
Solid
New Hampshire
4
6

Solid
Solid
Pennsylvania
20
5

Solid
Solid
Wisconsin
10
7

Solid
Solid
Colorado
9
5
Clinton +4
Solid
LEAN
N. Carolina
15
-2
Clinton +4
Toss-up
LEAN
Maine CD2
1

Clinton +3
Lean
Lean
Florida
29
1
Clinton +1
Lean
TOSS-UP
Nevada
6
7
Clinton +0
Lean
TOSS-UP
Iowa
6
6
Trump +0
Lean
TOSS-UP
Ohio
18
2
Trump +1
Toss-up
Toss-up
Arizona
11
-11
Trump +1
Toss-up
Toss-up
Utah
6
-48
Trump +3
Toss-up
Toss-up
Georgia
16
-8
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
Alaska
3
-13

Lean
SOLID
Texas
38
-16

Lean
SOLID
S. Carolina
9
-11

Lean
SOLID
Missouri
10
-10

Solid
SOLID
Indiana
11
-11

Lean
SOLID
Mississippi
6
-12

Solid
Solid
Montana
3
-14

Solid
Solid
Louisiana
8
-17

Solid
Solid
S. Dakota
3
-18

Solid
Solid
N. Dakota
3
-20

Solid
Solid
Tennessee
11
-21

Solid
Solid
Kansas
6
-22

Solid
Solid
Alabama
9
-22

Solid
Solid
Nebraska
5
-23

Solid
Solid
Kentucky
8
-23

Solid
Solid
Arkansas
6
-24

Solid
Solid
W. Virginia
5
-27

Solid
Solid
Idaho
4
-32

Solid
Solid
Oklahoma
7
-34

Solid
Solid
Wyoming
3
-41

Solid
Solid

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State
Inc. Party
Incumbent
Dem
GOP
Poll Margin as of 10/30
BTRTN         Rating as of 10/30
Hold/ Flip
Not running

46-54





California
D
Boxer
Harris
Sanchez (D)

Solid D
Hold
New York
D
Schumer
Schumer
Long

Solid D
Hold
Maryland
D
Mikulski *
Van Hollen
Szeliga

Solid D
Hold
Hawaii
D
Schatz
Schatz
Carroll

Solid D
Hold
Oregon
D
Wyden
Wyden
Callaghan

Solid D
Hold
Vermont
D
Leahy
Leahy
Milne

Solid D
Hold
Connecticut
D
Blumenthal
Blumenthal
Carter

Solid D
Hold
Washington
D
Murray
Murray
Vance

Solid D
Hold
Colorado
D
Bennet
Bennet
Glenn

Solid D
Hold
Wisconsin
R
Johnson
Feingold
Johnson

Solid D
Flip
Illinois
R
Kirk
Duckworth
Kirk

Solid D
Flip
Pennsylvania
R
Toomey
McGinty
Toomey
D + 5
LEAN D
Flip
Indiana
R
Coats
Bayh
Young
D + 1
TOSS-UP D
Flip
Nevada
D
Reid *
Cortez Masto
Heck
D + 0
Toss-up D
Hold
New Hamp.
R
Ayotte
Hassan
Ayotte
D + 0
Toss-up D
Hold
N. Carolina
R
Burr
Ross
Burr
R + 1
Toss-up R
Hold
Missouri
R
Blunt
Kander
Blunt
R + 1
Toss-up R
Hold
Florida
R
Rubio
Murphy
Rubio

SOLID R
Hold
Kentucky
R
Paul
Gray
Paul

Solid R
Hold
Ohio
R
Portman
Strickland
Portman

Solid R
Hold
Arkansas
R
Boozman
Eldridge
Boozman

Solid R
Hold
Iowa
R
Grassley
Judge
Grassley

Solid R
Hold
Georgia
R
Isakson
Barksdale
Isakson

Solid R
Hold
Kansas
R
Moran
Wiesner
Moran

Solid R
Hold
S. Carolina
R
Scott
Dixon
Scott

Solid R
Hold
Arizona
R
McCain
Kirkpatrick
McCain

Solid R
Hold
Utah
R
Lee
Snow
Lee

Solid R
Hold
N. Dakota
R
Hoeven
Grassheim
Hoeven

Solid R
Hold
Oklahoma
R
Lankford
Workman
Lankford

Solid R
Hold
S. Dakota
R
Thune
Williams
Thune

Solid R
Hold
Alabama
R
Shelby
Crumpton
Shelby

Solid R
Hold
Alaska
R
Murkowski
Metcalfe
Murkowski

Solid R
Hold
Idaho
R
Crapo
Sturgill
Crapo

Solid R
Hold
Louisiana
R
Vitter
      24 cand's.
 runoff Dec 3

Solid R
Hold



4 comments:

  1. I'm counting on your accuracy Tom... don't let me down or the country.

    ReplyDelete
  2. don't listen to this idiot dirt bag clinton can not and will not win especially after she gets indited this guy doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground it he predicts dirtbag clinton to win!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mike: A very polite comment towards our host and an accurate analysis. I am taking a wild guess here and say that you might be leaning towards Mr. Trumpf?

    PS: the word is INDICTED
    PS2: if SHE wins I will buy you a drink (if you don't shoot me first)

    ReplyDelete

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