Dashboard Update...It Doesn't Matter Until Election Day? Wrong! (September 24, 2012)

So you think it doesn’t matter that The Dashboard is solid blue because we still have 6 weeks (see our new nifty countdown graphic above) to go?  With four debates in October?  Two more job reports?  Middle East uncertainty and who knows what else?

Think again.  Jane reminds us that voting has already started, folks…in 25 states no less, including swing states Virginia, New Hampshire and Missouri.  Five more will begin by the end of the month.  Experts predict that a whopping 35% of voters will cast their ballots before Election Day.

So that means what is happening right now matters a great deal.  Mitt Romney can’t count on a late spending blitz or strong debate performances, although those are certainly requirements for him.  He has to begin the turnaround – and yes, despite his protestations otherwise, it is a turnaround that is required – now.

Obama has not lost any of his convention bounce, and remains 3-4 points ahead nationally and ahead in 8 out of 10 swing states.  It is entirely possible that the bounce was beginning to recede or would have receded, but the Romney gaffes in his too-quick Libya tragedy response and the “47% video" seem to have recharged Obama’s momentum.

Swing States.   There were lots of new polls in the swing states last week.  Some were before the 47% video so the impact of that remains in flux.  Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are all quite solidly in Obama's camp, and North Carolina is now a tie (which I give to the "Charisma Factor" leader). 

24-Sep	Electoral	Polling	Since	8-Sep
10 states	Votes	Obama	Romney	Obama +/-
Ohio	18	48.5	43.0	5.5
Wisconsin	10	50.3	45.3	5.0
Virginia	13	48.3	44.0	4.3
Nevada	6	48.0	45.5	2.5
Iowa	6	47.0	44.5	2.5
Colorado	9	47.7	45.7	2.0
Florida	29	48.0	46.5	1.5
North Carolina	15	47.0	47.0	0.0
New Hampshire	4	46.5	47.5	-1.0
Missouri	10	45.0	48.0	-3.0
	120			2.2

Thus Obama maintains a very healthy lead in the electoral college projections.  Romney does not even achieve 200 electors in this projection.  Obama has 237 solid electors, which means he needs only 33 more from the swing states for the magic 270..  Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia, his three strongest swing states, with leads of 4-6 points, total 41...enough alone.

270  to win	Solid	Swing	Total
Obama	237	106	343
Romney	181	14	195

 The Obameter.  The Obameter rose to a very blue +13.9 on a continued strong stock market and no movement on Romney’s favorability.  Pew did some research that said Romney is the only modern candidate from either party to still have a net negative favorability rating at this stage of the campaign.

OBAMETER	Baseline
	1-Jan	9-Sep	16-Sep	23-Sep
Unemployment Rate	8.7	8.1	8.1	8.1
Consumer Confidence	65.0	60.6	60.6	60.6
Price of Gas (avg. for week)	3.32	3.90	3.90	3.88
Dow-Jones (avg. for week)	12,076	13,155	13,406	13,535
Romney Favorability (avg.)	38.0	48.0	44.5	44.7
"Events"	0	10	10	10
Unemployment Rate	8.7	6	6	6
Consumer Confidence	65	-4	-4	-4
Price of Gas (avg. for week)	3.32	-6	-6	-6
Dow-Jones (avg. for week)	12,076	11	13	15
Romney Favorability (avg.)	38	-10	-7	-7
"Events"	0	10	10	10
OBAMETER	0.0	6.6	12.6	13.9
Obama versus Romney	1.1	3.3	3.4	3.6

 The Charisma Factor.   Obama continues to maintain a commanding “charisma” lead with net positives well ahead of Romney, who cannot crack into positive territory himself.

	Fav	Unfav	Net
Obama	51.0	43.3	7.7
Romney	44.7	45.3	-0.6
Net			8.3

Latest National Polling.  Obama holds a 3.6 point lead on average in the recent national polls.  Romney may think that 47% will never vote for him…the reality is that number may be quite an underestimate.  It seems to be more like only 47% WILL vote for him (see below).

	Nat'l Polls
Obama	48.3%
Romney	44.6%
Diff	3.6%

Popular Vote Projection.  My projection of Obama’s national popular vote has increased to a 4.5 point lead over Romney, 51.5% to....yes, 47.0%.

	Vote (000)	%
Obama	66,955	51.5%
Romney	61,045	47.0%
Other	1,988	1.5%

As always, comments welcome!