Swing State Pres

Monday, February 22, 2016

GOP Nevada Caucus Projection: Can Trump Be Stopped? Not Here

We are back with our projection of the GOP Nevada Caucus, which is tomorrow, Tuesday, February 23. 

Nevada represents a clear opportunity for Donald Trump to build on his momentum coming off a solid win in South Carolina.  He has led in the polls in Nevada by about 20 points (there have been only two recent polls, but they have had similar outcomes).  While the media has been fixated on the “race for second place” between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio (and, of course, John Kasich and Ben Carson are still in the field), that is becoming borderline irrelevant unless someone actually beats Trump – soon.

A narrowed field might slow him down, but that seems unlikely in the near term.  Neither Cruz nor Rubio, who tap into different sectors of the GOP (Tea Party and mainstream, respectively), are likely to drop out soon.  Carson should drop out, and when he does, his followers will likely shift to Cruz.  Kasich, counting on big support in the Midwest, will certainly hold out until March 8, when Michigan is up, and even March 15, when Illinois and home-state Ohio have their primaries.  If he drops out at some point, Rubio is the likely beneficiary. 

But by March 15 it may be over.  The GOP will have selected 60% of its delegates by then, and Trump may have an insurmountable lead if he wins big on Super Tuesday.  GOP primaries tend to be “winner take all” rather than “proportional” in terms of delegate awards, so wins count for a great deal.  This is less true on the Democratic side, where staying close, as Bernie did in both Iowa and Nevada, yields significant delegates.

So, if Trump is going to be derailed, he has to start losing.  Nevada would be a good place to start, but again, he has a big lead as of last week.

BTRTN PREDICTION

Our BTRTN prediction is that Donald Trump will win the Nevada caucus rather handily.  Ted Cruz will nose out Marco Rubio for second, and John Kasich will get by Ben Carson for fourth.  Trump has led every poll here since July, all six of them.  That won’t change tomorrow.

Nevada      (GOP)
BTRTN Prediction
Trump
40
Cruz
23
Rubio
21
Kasich
9
Carson
7


2 comments:

  1. It will take decades to recover if the unthinkable happens and Trump wins in November

    ReplyDelete

Leave a comment