Friday, March 25, 2016

March 26 Predictions: Bernie Will Sweep Three Western Caucuses

There are three western Democratic (only) caucuses tomorrow, March 26, in Washington (state), Alaska and Hawaii.  There is only one poll in any of these states, a two-month old one in Alaska that had Hillary Clinton +3 over Bernie Sanders.  That is not much to go on.

Most of the campaign coverage is overlooking this one, focusing instead on Wisconsin on April 5, where both parties will hold consequential primaries.  Consequential on the GOP side because the establishment has decided to fight Donald Trump tooth-and-nail there, and on the Democratic side because Sanders badly needs bigger-state wins and Wisconsin might be a good place to pull one off. 

Based on the fact that tomorrow’s races are all caucuses (which tend to attract zealots), I suspect that Bernie could have a nice night, not quite routs of the magnitude of Utah (+59) and Idaho (+57), but decisive nonetheless.  Clinton is campaigning hard in Washington; Hawaii is Obama-land, which could help her; and there is that one Alaska poll.  All of that suggests that Hillary will keep the margins in each in the respectable range.  But none of them will keep us on the edges of our seats as the night wears on.

So, with little to go on, BTRTN predicts that Bernie Sanders will sweep the Washington, Alaska and Hawaii caucuses, winning by comfortable margins.

Washington
Predicted
Sanders
54
Clinton
46
Alaska
Predicted
Sanders
61
Clinton
39
Hawaii
Predicted
Sanders
58
Clinton
42

But it is the same overall story.  If Bernie wins by these margins, he will pick up a net of only about 20 delegates on Clinton, barely qualifying as a material lessening of the 303 delegate gap he now faces.                              

25 comments:

  1. The Holy Spirit landed on the podium, to bless Bernie Sanders this Easter. He is our only hope for world peace:
    http://twitchy.com/2016/03/25/watch-cultists-cheer-as-bernie-sanders-talks-to-a-tiny-bird-in-oregon-birdiesanders/

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    1. OMFG It's people like you who support Bernie. We don't want ignorant people deciding who will be our next president. Bernie is going to lose. Period.

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    2. OMFG It's people like you who support Bernie. We don't want ignorant people deciding who will be our next president. Bernie is going to lose. Period.

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    3. Quite funny that of the gazillion links you could have chosen, you decided to use the "watch cultists..." one.

      Are you a cultist? LOL

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  2. The "Hillometer"? Are you serious? Why not a "Bernometer"? Ridiculous. Don't be so obvious. On that note, you may want to think about a "Trumpeater", a "Cruzerator" and a "KasicHater" all in the same.

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  3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  4. Bernie, Please explain your RAPE ESSAYS.

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    1. explain? do you ask any author of fiction to explain their murder mysteries or the author of 50 shades to explain why they wrote what they wrote? don't be silly.

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    2. Those pieces weren't fiction. They were literary essays making an argument. He stated in those essays, as an opinion, that all women think about being gang raped while having sex with their partner. Weird, to put it mildly.

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    3. why don't we post this on bernie sanders fb page,,,,let them know what kind of character he has

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  5. Bernie has been in politics for over 25 years. What has he achieved? Much like Trump he seems to be offering pie in the sky. Nice chap though.

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    1. Bernie Sanders is not experienced enough to run this country. It would go down down and out. He is so upset because Hillary has more delegates than him and that is because she can run this country and she knows how to speak to the public. Knows world leaders, first lady and secretary of state. What has Bernie done. Give me a break.

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    2. I agree with your statement. Bernie hasn't achieved one thing. Now he is determined to be president and he is trying hard to beat Hillary. He is a desperate candidate. If he was president this country would be at war with world leaders.

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    3. And what exactly do you base your statement around? He has done nothing? Nothing notable in the establishments mind but he has united people from every walk of life, stood up for EVERYONE. He speaks of love, unity and peace. Who else has spoken of these things? Only the most inspirational people in history; Nelson Mandella (created the strongest change despite being in prison for so long), FDR. The greatest leaders unite people. Knowing "things" does nothing when the only thing you do with it is feed corporate interest the way Clinton does. She's a liar, a criminal, and FULL of hate. She wants to GIVE black people things instead of telling them the way Sanders does that we are all equal, all brothers and sisters and we can all succeed together by destroying the establishment and creating a government for the people. Every other candidate is the real joke. What made Bush qualified? What about Bill Clinton? Obama? Every "qualified" puppet that runs for office runs our rights into the fucking ground, exploits the environment and bows at the feet of corporate interests. Your qualified candidates are nothing more than qualified puppets whose strings are coaxed and pulled this way and that to do the bidding of the corrupt billionaire class. Sanders has exposed publicly these topics you "FOX News" believers are so blind to. You are so worried about trivial things that you'll follow to the death your "qualified candidate." The most qualifying trait of any president is their ability to unite and FIGHT for the people that break their backs to support a system that sucks them dry.

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    4. Senator Sanders aka the amendment king is (pretty kick ass) who not very long ago filibustered for 8 hours. He has got hell of a lot done more than most. Because of him we got the fed audited for the1st time and he wants to get the military audited. He truly wan t's to make our country strong now and for the future with out being bought so finally we got some one who can do campaign finance reform. The man's judgment has been proven brilliant. Research some more....
      http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-gets-it-done-sanders-record-pushing-through-major-reforms-will-surprise-you
      https://pplswar.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/fact-bernie-sanders-got-more-done-in-the-senate-than-hillary-clinton/

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  6. Try researching what he's achieved instead of alleging he hasn't achieved anything.

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  7. There is nothing to research. He has been on one job doesn't know politics and is not capable of running this country. If elected that could start a war with other countries then what would he do HIDE.

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    1. Just because you're too lazy to Google it, doesn't mean there's nothing to find. He has a pretty distinguished record.

      http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-gets-it-done-sanders-record-pushing-through-major-reforms-will-surprise-you

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  8. Bernie is no Nelson Mandella, just saying.

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  9. Bernie is no Nelson Mandella, just saying.

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  10. president Sanders. Get used to that. Say it to yourself, get used to it.
    #Feelthebern

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  11. president Sanders. Get used to that. Say it to yourself, get used to it.
    #Feelthebern

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  12. Im not from the US neither I live there. But you, Hillary backers are Hilarious. What makes you thinj Bernie becoming the US president will launch a global war against the US?

    The only countries that can fight the US cause they have the arsenal to do so are Russia and China. The only countries that can fight against the US cause they are stupid enough are North Korea and Iran. Lets see, Russia is already in a proxy war with you, China will avoid any conflict with the US cause most of their earnings for the past 30 years are in US gov bonds and tbills and silly NK and Iran are not capable of attacking the US directly under any circumstance. Europe has and will always be a US ally together with Japan, South Korea and all pacific ocean countries.

    Your current gov, which includes Hillary has done a lot to alienate those allies in the past (read NSA scandals). Also, your current gov has done a terrible job at ushering peace with Russia and the Middle east. What more, Hillary has definitely done something illegal and that is why she relied on her personal servers. At the very least, her behavior was very unethical for a person wishing to represent the country of 300mln plus. I bet she will do a lot more of those ugly stuff when you give her the unlimited (virtually) power to become the president.

    Most of the world leaders, including your current and the previous presidents all the way till Kennedy are stupid as you if not stupider. They have advisors, ministers/secretaries and armies of people working for them and they still suck at getting the job done. Do not bring pathetic excuses and read your history. Where are the shovle ready jobs that Obama promised you? Hillary will give you nothing. She lied 1000s times, about everything in the past. Open up your eyes people. All she does is to feed you with lies again and those promises will go out the door when she takes the office (i hope not).

    Your country is the most backward and your people have the lowest IQ of all the developed countries and you owe it to your presidents in the past decades.

    The land of the free should offer a free education to those free.

    Vote for Bernie and let the world alone. No one hates US cause of its culture. Every hater hates US cause of your foreign policy. You kill the family of an arab and they blow u up in return. Its called retaliation, not terrorism. Stop watchin CNNs and Foxs

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  13. This list could get you started, all you have to do is search and verify. Agree or disagree with his actions but at least bring something to the table to discuss. Truly, EVERYTHING you just wrote is inaccurate! There's plenty you can research, he has been on more than ONE job for example, Major of Burlington VT, served 4 terms! Won a seat in the House of Representatives 91-07, won election to US Senate and REELECTED 2012. Bernie Sanders is an activist, he marched with MLK Jr, was arrested while fighting for black peoples rights! People were getting killed bc of the color of their skin, out in the open in the middle of the day. He was brave and had courage. I don't think he's the one to HIDE as you put it. I'm not trying to be condescending or offensive, I just want you to be informed. Regardless of who you vote for-do your research on each and every candidate so you can choose the one that YOU agree with, and learn some stuff on the way.
    Corporate Crime Accountability (February 1995): A Sanders amendment to the Victims Justice Act of 1995 required “offenders who are convicted of fraud and other white-collar crimes to give notice to victims and other persons in cases where there are multiple victims eligible to receive restitution.”
    Saving Money, for Colleges and Taxpayers (April 1998): In an amendment to H.R. 6, the Higher Education Amendments of 1998, Sanders made a change to the law that allowed the Fund for the Improvement of Post secondary Education to make competitive grants available to colleges and universities that cooperated to reduce costs through joint purchases of goods and services.
    Holding IRS Accountable, Protecting Pensions (July 2002): Sanders' amendment to the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act of 2003 stopped the IRS from being able to use funds that “violate current pension age discrimination laws.” Although he faced stiff GOP opposition, his amendment still succeeded along a 308 to 121 vote.
    Expanding Free Health Care (November 2001): You wouldn't think Republicans would agree to an expansion of funds for community health centers, which provide some free services. But Sanders was able to win a $100 million increase in funding with an amendment.
    Getting Tough On Child Labor (July 2001): A Sanders amendment to the general appropriations bill prohibited the importation of goods made with child labor.
    Increasing Funding for Heating for the Poor (September 2004)
    Fighting Corporate Welfare and Protecting Against Nuclear Disasters (June 2005)
    Greening the U.S. Government (June 2007)
    Protecting Our Troops (October 2007)
    Restricting the Bailout to Protect U.S. Workers (Feburary 2009)
    Helping Veterans' Kids (July 2009)
    Exposing Corruption in the Military-Industrial Complex (November 2012)
    Support for Treating Autism in Military Health Care
    Sanders was able to get the first-ever audit of funds given out by the Federal Reserve, which made transparent over $2 trillion of funds handed out by the secretive organization.
    Sanders, who was then chair of the Veterans committee, worked with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), to overhaul the Veterans Administration. McCain praised Sanders' work on the bill in an interview with National Journal. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) even went so far as to say the bill would never have passed without Sanders' ability to bring the parties to a deal.

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    1. To be honest, thats not even the right question 4 any1 to ask. Hes only a senator while Hillary has been the secretary of state.

      You cannot tie someones hands together and ask him/her to put on the table what they have accomplished. He has done a lot for a senator. Hillary has done only handful for a person with that much power and most of it was done for the wrong audience aka bankers and billionaires.

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