Last night’s debate triggered memories of that Monty Python
scene in which an aging, enfeebled man who has been placed on a cart used for
the disposal of corpses weakly raises his head to deliver a reasonable protest: “I’m not dead yet.”
So, too, Donald Trump’s better-than-expected performance
last night allowed him to clear the low bar articulated by the Python
character. Though this was merely a stay
in his execution rather than a genuine reprieve, Trump survived an evening that
initially appeared to be a march into the valley of death.
His still-existent pulse was assisted in some measure by a
relatively low-key performance by Hillary Clinton. On a night when many
expected Clinton to lean back and deliver a crushing knock-out punch, Hillary chose
to not be directly combative. Perhaps Hillary
believed the ingoing narrative: that Donald Trump was going to implode tonight,
that he was going to drop the “nuclear bomb” and accuse Bill Clinton of serial rape,
then froth at the mouth while castigating Hillary as his enabler. In so doing, many speculated, Trump would
surely exacerbate the impression that he is relentlessly hostile to women, and
the lingering remains of his campaign would go into free fall. And all Hillary
would have to do is stand by and let it happen.
Donald Trump said some very startling things tonight – for starters, threatening that if elected, he
would prosecute Clinton with the intent of jailing her, and let’s not gloss
over the stunning manner in which he undercut of own vice-presidential
candidate – but at no point this evening did Hillary Clinton go for the
jugular. Indeed, in a role reversal from the first debate, she was the
candidate who spent the night on the defensive, rising to his bait, rather than
prosecuting her case and her opponent.
The famous Access
Hollywood video was raised and dismissed for the evening within the first twenty
minutes, and it seemed as if Trump had
dodged the full brunt of its potential impact.
Emboldened, perhaps, by merely surviving the opening torpedoes about the catastrophic video, Trump
settled into a hard-edge attack mode for the remainder of the evening, actually
doing all the things that he was
excoriated for flubbing in the first debate. First and foremost, he did not
lose his narrative while meandering to defend himself against every incoming
shell. Second, he was far more relentless about attacking Clinton in a
consistent manner on a narrow band of key issues: (1) alleging her failures to
get anything done in thirty years of public life, (2) blaming her stewardship as
Secretary of State for the full array of global hotspots, (3) ridiculing her
judgment, and (4) relentlessly branding her as a liar.
But Donald Trump’s only real gift in life is for exaggeration
and hyperbole, from his tacky gold décor to his constant paeans to his own
splendor. Last night, he simply could not score a point, leave it alone, and
watch it do damage. Too often, he raced to outdo himself, desperately needing
to whip his conclusions and implications in a manic frenzy of overwrought hype.
Trump would not merely conclude that one of Hillary’s policies or programs was
unsuccessful , he repeatedly said that Hillary Clinton “should be ashamed of
herself.” He claimed she “has done a terrible job for African Americans,” that
she “has tremendous hate in her heart,” and that she “owed the President an
apology,” once again attempting to blame her for the birther movement. And it was precisely in this overheated rhetoric
exaggeration that he appeared to lose the audience. While he was clearly the
more aggressive debater all night long, and while he unquestionably
outperformed expectations, the viewers were no longer buying. It was a pretty simple case of defeat by
bloviation.
When CNN flashed its poll results, Hillary Clinton had won
once again – handily. The 57 to 39 margin was only slightly smaller than the 62
to 26 “blowout” in the first debate. Commentators
pointed to statistics in this poll that showed that Trump had indeed
dramatically outperformed expectations. But what does that say? If you “far
exceed expectations,” but still lose decisively, it suggests that many people
had watched the Access Hollywood video
and concluded that Trump’s candidacy is dead.
And to “exceed expectations,” Trump merely need to meet the Monty Python
standard: “I’m not dead yet.”
But barring the emergence of a video in which Hillary
Clinton is caught on a hot mic confessing to squeezing the private parts of boy
toys, this ballgame is over and Trump did not do enough last night to save it. The
Access Hollywood video is indeed an
iceberg that has ripped a seventy foot gash under Trump’s waterline, and Republicans
are now focused on finding lifeboats rather than bailing the tons of cold
seawater that is pouring in. After his debate performance, Trump could only
assure his first class passengers that his campaign would not be at the ocean
bottom by morning.
However: some would argue that a relatively narrow debate
loss by Trump is the worst possible
outcome for the Republican Party. Had
Trump completely flamed out, the movement to dump him could have finally hit
critical mass, giving the Party the chance to go for broke behind Mike Pence. But
this mixed result pretty much ensures that Trump will stay the candidate… and
right now, the Clintons feel much more secure with Trump on the top of the
ticket than seeing the Republicans heave him overboard and go with the far less
polarizing Mike Pence.
Let’s review the key moments of the night.
1.
The Access Hollywood Tape
The evening’s drama began several hours before the debate with a bit of ominous posturing by Trump, who summoned
reporters on the pretense of a press conference about “debate prep,” only to
spring a trap. Once inside, reporters found Trump flanked by women who claimed
to have been the victims of sexual assault by Bill Clinton. Trump was playing mind-games, taunting Hillary with his nuclear-tipped sexual ICBMs, and
trying to intimidate the Clinton Camp by making clear that if the video
was going to be the only topic of the evening, that Trump would rip into her husband,
her marriage, and turn the entire evening into a Reality Show devoted to
measuring the relative degree of sexually predatory behavior. Who knows? Perhaps Trump’s theatre had an
impact, as Hillary Clinton did not seem eager to prolong the discussion of the Access Hollywood Tape.
This would turn out to be unfortunate, because Trump chose
to handle the Access Hollywood tape in a strategically bizarre fashion.
In all of the internet frenzy over the weekend, there was
really one thing that everybody in the known
universe seemed to agree on, from Fox to Mitch McConnell to Blue Nation:
that Trump’s very first press release, in which he attempted to dismiss the
video as just so much “locker room banter,” was a shamefully inadequate
expression of regret and apology for the hideous and flagrant sexually
predatory behavior exhibited on the tape.
So what did Trump do in the debate? He once again attempted
to breeze past the video with the exact same expression – “locker room banter.”
After a brief and grumpy expression of contrition, Trump quickly flew off into
a tirade about ISIS, flagrantly attempting to “pivot” away from the video.
These moderators – Anderson Cooper and particularly Martha Raddatz – were not
the limp overcooked fettucine al -Lester
Holt of the first debate, and they went right up Trump’s nose when he went
into evasive maneuvers. Most significant was Cooper’s determination to force
Trump to acknowledge or deny that he had ever actually done any of the actions
that he had described doing to his poodle side-kick, Billy Bush. Anderson got
his denial on the record. I suspect we will see a Cosby-like line of women form
to challenge that claim.
The first question from the audience kept the topic front
and center – Trump was asked if and when he had “changed” since the 2005
taping. Trump quickly turned the tables to Hillary’s philandering husband, and
Trump alleged that Bill Clinton was “far worse.” When Hillary had her moment to
respond, it appeared that Team Clinton had made a decision that she should not
risk going shit for shat with a turd volcano. Instead, she
simple invoked the Michelle Obama principle that “when they go low, we go
high.” With that, the discussion of the tape was over… and it was barely 9:20.
2.
Trump threatens that he will put Hillary in
jail.
Sensing that the worst was behind him, Donald Trump’s
confidence surged, and he went on offense.
After railing about the Hillary’s deleted emails, Trump made the
shocking comment that “if I win, I am going to hire a special prosecutor to
look into your situation,” following this threat with a glib comment that if
Trump were president, Clinton would be “in jail.” Imprisoning your opponent immediately
after seizing power is a time honored tradition among dictators in countries
that are still aspiring to third world status. It’s not the kind of threat
you’ve ever heard in a presidential debate.
Here was a prime example of Trump having effectively made a point by shining a bright spotlight on Clinton’s email fiasco, but he squandered the impact by effectively joining in the chant of “lock her up” that inevitable rises from his stadium crowds of card-carrying deplorables. After the debate, the commentators were not talking about Hillary’s emails, they were talking about Donald Trump’s Nixonian threat to jail his opponent.
3.
Trump was stronger on substance than usual,
particularly in prosecuting Obamacare.
Give the man his due, however; he put on a strong show in
his withering attack on Obamacare. This is one of the very few areas in which Trump
claims to have a specific and seemingly credible idea: that the surest way to
reduce the cost of health insurance is to enable more competition. I suspect that a surprising number of
Americans could not explain what “single payer” plan is, and find the debate
swirling around Obamacare to be utterly confusing and unbearably complex. All
they believe is that the cost of healthcare continues to rise. The fact that Trump was able to reduce his
attack to a single, compelling theme – “more competition equals lower prices” –
gave him a strong debate moment.
4.
Trump launches a surprise attack on, uh, his running mate.
Much was made – here, and in other commentary – about the
fact that Mike Pence went way off-script in the “Rogue v. Rogaine” VP debate,
repeatedly evoking a Donald Trump whose robust policy expertise seemed to exist
only in the Governor’s richly-furnished imagination. One notable moment in that
debate was when Pence conjured a strong approach to navigating the complexities
of the conflicting forces in Syria that included a willingness to confront
Vladimir Putin with military force.
Flash forward to last night: Martha Raddatz demanded that
Donald Trump spell out exactly what he would do to attempt to solve the
nightmare in Syria. Trump tried to skate atop the superficial surface like
the unprepared student who didn’t read the book and keeps tossing out jargon in
an attempt to run out the clock. Raddatz pushed him to speak about
his intentions regarding Russia’s increasing assertiveness in the conflict.
When Trump equivocated, Raddatz pounced, saying that Trump’s position on the
use of military force was directly at odds with the position Mike Pence had
taken just days before. In perhaps the
“gotcha” moment of this debate cycle, Trump blustered that he disagreed with
Pence and that they “hadn’t talked about it.” Perhaps most significantly, Trump
delivered his censure of Pence with a cool disdain that appeared to validate
rumors that Trump had not been thrilled by Pence’s debate performance… though
no one was sure whether his anger was at Pence’s rogue policy adventures or
simply because Pence had outperformed Trump.
You can say what you want about Mike Pence, but this guy has
been just about as loyal as is humanly possible considering that he’s been
locked in the caboose of a speeding train driven by a conductor who is tweeting with one hand and groping with the other.
Pence has to be doing the calculus about his own future, and it’s
getting near the point where a sharp rebuke to Trump – or even an outright
break with him – might be the wise course. The bottom line: apart from a whack
job former New York City mayor and his four kids, Mike Pence is one of the very
few people still standing with Trump. Publically repudiating Pence in front of
100,000,000 people is being dumber than a box of hammers.
5.
So, ah, what do you like about your opponent?
What other way to end this evening than the charming
question of a St. Louis resident named Karl Becker, who seemed to invoke the
soul of Rodney King (“Can’t we all just get along?”) in demanding that each
candidate say just one thing that they like about the other person.
In truth, both candidates fielded the question gracefully.
Hillary Clinton chose to express admiration for Trump’s children, acknowledging
that they were a very positive reflection on Trump.
Trump, softened by Hillary’s kind words for his children,
said something that was colossally ironic, though no one seemed to pick up on
it. The man who has spent the last two months raising questions about Hillary
Clinton’s “stamina” proceeded to say that the thing that he admired about her
was that “she never gives up. She’s a fighter.” All to say that the thing that
Donald Trump admires most about
Hillary Clinton sounds a great deal like the thing he claims she lacks. Wow.
When all was said and done last night, both candidates could
conclude that they had had a reasonably good night. Trump had a far better
debate performance than his first outing. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand,
emerged from the evening largely unscathed.
Of course at this stage of a presidential race, anything
resembling a tie is a win for the candidate who is ahead. And by CNN’s instant
poll, Hillary Clinton actually won.
Perhaps all Donald Trump wants at this point is to be able
to say that he won the 150 or so electoral votes that are the automatic bogey
for anyone on the Republican ticket.
So he may have accomplished one vital goal towards that end:
he probably avoided the utter humiliation of facing a Republican firing squad
bent on removing him from the ticket.
But that may well be the best news of all for Hillary
Clinton. She’d rather run the last month
against a humiliated party spearheaded by an embarrassing sexual predator than
by a resurgent opposition energized by a back-up quarterback with a hot hand.
And she got her wish.
Trump – a pathetic man who would be worthy of Monty Python
humor if he were not so utterly despicable --
is not quite dead yet.
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