Swing State Pres

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Here is the October Surprise: Chris Christie! (November 1, 2012)

It’s been a good 24 hours for Barack Obama.

And I don’t mean my almost-but-not–quite-official prediction of an Obama victory!

But since I made that prediction yesterday, a number of important events broke the President’s way.

First and foremost, Obama appears to have taken the challenge of an enormous natural disaster and more than risen to the occasion.  None other than Chris Christie – Romney’s top surrogate and the most popular Republican on the planet – led the bandwagon.  Christie exhausted superlatives in extolling Obama’s leadership in the Hurricane Sandy crisis. 

Recently Governor Christie said that Obama was “clutching for the light switch of leadership.”  Apparently, Christie has concluded that Obama has found it, saying among other hosannas, that it was “his honor” to introduce Obama, his seatmate on a tour of the ravaged Jersey Shore.  He also said he and Obama have a "great working relationship" and that Obama had been “outstanding" and overall “deserves great credit” for his Sandy performance.  I knew Christie was a fan of The Boss, but I always thought that meant Springsteen.

Cynics quickly concluded that Christie was calculating that he would rather Romney lose so he could run in 2016 than wait for Mitt to relinquish the Republican nomination in, yikes, 2020.  As a matter of fact, that’s what non-cynics concluded as well.

But the good news for Obama did not stop there, to wit:

·         Mr. Political Independent and Paragon of Business Competency, New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, officially endorsed Obama.  Doesn’t it cut the wind out of Romney’s sails when the leading businesspeople of our times – Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and Mike Bloomberg – are all lining up behind Obama?  (I would bet that Jeff Bezos, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg are on that line as well.)  Wait, I can think of two leading businessmen who are for Romney – Donald “The Birther” Trump and Jack “The Weasel” Welch!

·         The monthly ADP jobs report indicated growth of private sector jobs of 158,000, well ahead of estimates.  The ADP Report does not always correlate with the government report due tomorrow, but the strength of the report tends to diminish the odds of a bad one.

·         Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 363, 000, also beating expectations, a level associated with increasing employment.

·         Consumer Confidence, as measured by Conference Board (and one of the measures in my Obameter) climbed to 72.2, the highest level since February, 2008.  This is not the type of data that is headline-making, but it is the best indicator I’ve come across on how Americans feel about their economic prospects.  When Obama came to office, the number was 25.3.  So do you think Americans feel they are better off than four years ago?

·         The Dow rose 123 points, largely on the ADP and Consumer Confidence reports.  That datapoint does tend to get headlines, and is also in the Obameter.

·         Obama’s approval rating, as measured by Gallup, was 51%.  Three other polls, CBS, NBC and Fox, had it at 50%.  Only right-winger Rasmussen had it below 50% -- at 49%.  Fifty percent is generally the level associated with re-election for an incumbent.

So, as for the race itself, let me repeat my assertion from yesterday (updated for six new polls), which I stated before all this positive information rolled in….

Daily Dash 11/1
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Romney
0.5
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
8.0
Charisma Factor
 Romney
-1.8
Senate
Dems
53-47
House
Repubs
240-195
Obama has 237 solid state electoral votes.  But the key is this:  I believe that Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada are firming up for him.  Since October 4, the night of the first disastrous debate, there have been 53 polls in these three states.  (Fifty-three!)  And Obama has been ahead in 42 of them, with 7 ties.  Romney has been ahead in only 4 of these 53 polls!  And those three states represent 34 electoral votes….1 more than Obama needs to go over the top, because 237 + 34 = 271.


Barring a disastrous jobs report, I think Barack Obama is going to win.

And I really don’t envision a “disastrous” jobs report happening….and I’ll be back tomorrow morning with that “Breaking News.”

DAILY DASH

10/26
10/27
10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31
11/1









National Polls
Obama
47.3
47.3
47.7
47.7
47.49
47.4
47.6

Romney
47.5
47.4
47.2
47.5
47.48
47.5
47.2

Difference
-0.2
-0.2
0.5
0.3
0.01
-0.1
0.5









Obameter

3.6
3.6
3.6
2.6
4.7
4.6
8.0









Charisma Factor

-3.7
-3.7
-3.7
-3.8
-3.0
-3.0
-1.8









Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Nevada
6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.0
Wisconsin
10
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
Iowa
6
2.0
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
Colorado
9
0.8
0.8
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.0
Virginia
13
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.0
New Hampshire
4
2.0
2.0
0.3
0.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
Florida
29
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
66
66
66
66
66
66
66

Obama
303
303
303
303
303
303
303










Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
29
29
29
29
29
29
29

Romney
235
235
235
235
235
235
235









Senate
Democrat
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
Projection
Republican
48
48
48
48
47
47
47









Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
Ohio
Brown-Martel
5
5
3
4
6
6
6
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
4
4
4
6
6
6
6
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
5
5
5
4
6
6
6
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
2
2
2
1
1
3
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
6
6
6
4
4
4
4
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
0
0
0
4
4
4









House
Democrat
200
200
200
200
200
195
195
Projection
Republican
235
235
235
235
235
240
240






1 comment:

  1. Tom --

    I was just in the elevator with Will McAvoy, Hildie Johnson and Chris Matthews. Chris said, "That Obameter has cohones. I wouldn't dare predict until midnight Tuesday. Will, are you really a natural blond?"

    ReplyDelete

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