Swing State Pres

Monday, November 5, 2012

My Predictions: Obama Will Win 303-235, Senate Dems 53-47, House Repubs 238-197...and Obama Will Win at 1:20 AM EST With Wisconsin Pushing Him Over the Top (November 5, 2012)

At long last, the Election is upon us (well, one more day)…time for my predictions! 

Back in 2008 P.B. (Pre Blog), I did pretty well.  In the Presidential race I got 48 out of 50 states correct, missing Nevada and Indiana as they snuck into Obama’s column.  I said Obama would get 52.8% of the vote and he actually received 52.9%.  I managed to call all 35 Senatorial races correctly, sweating out Al Franken’s win in Minnesota for several months.  I did not do the House back then, but I was back in 2010 for the mid-terms for both the Senate and the House.  That time I was 33 out of 36 in the Senate and 420 out of 435 in the House.  I like to think my methodology has some validity, but I'd be the first to admit even the blind squirrel gets the nut occasionally!

Here are my 2012 predictions, which offer no surprises versus the latest Daily Dash.  The more things change, the more they stay the same:

·         Barack Obama will win a second term as the 44th President of the United States. 
·         The Senate will continue to be comprised of 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans  (actually, just as before, it will be 51 Democrats and 2 Independents comprising the majority party caucus)
·         And John Boehner will still be Speaker of the House, as the House maintains a healthy 238-197 Republican majority.

Apart from these “normal” predictions, I built a very crude model to try to determine when the Presidential race would actually be called.  I did this by looking at when states were called in 2008….how much time elapsed after the polls were closed in each state before the network I was watching (NBC) made the call.  Every race that was decided by a margin of 20 points or more was called immediately.  The others ranged from about 30 minutes to 10 hours (if my own data is correct) after the polls closed, with a rough inverse correlation between the margin and the elapsed time…that is, the tighter the race, the longer it took to call (duh). 

So, based on that, I predict that Barack Obama will win the election at 1:20 AM EST…when NBC calls the state that will put him over the top, Wisconsin.  (It could easily be Michigan or Pennsylvania, or a number of other states…the model is VERY crude!)

If you would like my semi-famous election spreadsheet, let me know by sending me an email at tom@obameter2012.com.  It is one file with three easy-to-follow tabs, one each for the Presidential Race, the Senate and the House.  Each tab has a line for each race, by state (President and Senate) and each district (house).  It’s a good way to go along, in particular by noting which races are the important ones (the swings) that determine overall winners and losers.  Obviously, the sheets contain my race-by-race predictions with columns to fill in the actual results as they come in.

I also invite you to send me YOUR predictions, in any format you wish.  If I get any predictions from anyone, I’ll be sure to give public acclaim to any prediction that was more or less accurate.  Send them to the same email address:  tom@obameter2012.com.

It would take up too much space to put all the predictions here, but below is a summary chart of the main predictions…check it out!

I’ll be back tomorrow with one last look at the Daily Dash and also a song parody for Election Night.  I’ll also be blogging at various points on Tuesday night and presumably into Wednesday morning.



Prediction
Actual
PRESIDENCY
Winner


Electoral Vote
Obama
303 - 235

Popular Vote %
Obama
 49.8 - 48.7

Popular Vote
Obama
62.7MM - 61.4MM

Time race is called by NBC

1:20 AM EST

State that pushes the winner over

Wisconsin

Ohio
Obama
51 - 48

Nevada
Obama
51 - 47

Wisconsin
Obama
52 - 47

Iowa
Obama
50 - 48

Colorado
Obama
50 - 49

Virginia
Obama
51 - 48

New Hampshire
Obama
51 - 48

Florida
Romney
49 - 50

SENATE



Senate
Democrat
53 - 47

Missouri
McCaskill (Dem)
52 - 48

Ohio
S. Brown (Dem)
53 - 47

Connecticut
Murphy (Dem)
54 - 46

Pennsylvania
Casey (Dem)
53 - 47

Wisconsin
Baldwin (Dem)
51 - 49

Virginia
Kaine (Dem)
51 - 49

Massachusetts
Warren (Dem)
52 - 48

Indiana
Donnelley (Dem)
54 - 46

Arizona
Flake (Rep)
47 - 53

Montana
Rehberg (Rep)
49 - 51

North Dakota
Berg (Rep)
48 - 52

Nevada
Heller (Rep)
47 - 53

HOUSE



House
Republican
197 - 238






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