Swing State Pres

Friday, October 26, 2012

Daily Dash...A Good Swing State Day For Obama (October 26, 2012)


Daily Dash 10/26
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Romney
0.3
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
3.6
Charisma Factor
 Romney
3.7
Senate
Dems
52-48
House
Repubs
232-200
It was a good day in the swing state polls for President Obama.  There were four new polls in Colorado, and they showed Obama at +4, +3, +1 and tied.  This flipped a state that had been in Romney’s camp, based on prior recent polling, back to Obama.  Virginia was also a switcher....four new polls today showed Obama +5, +2, +2 and tied.  So now 7 out of the 8 swing states are in the blue. 

And there were three new polls in Ohio that had Obama at +4, +2 and +2.  There have been a total of nine polls in Ohio in the last week, and Obama was ahead in seven and tied in two.  He maintains this lead despite Romney visiting the Buckeye state 17 times in October.


Based on these and other polls, Obama increased his lead to 303-235 in my Electoral College projector.  All other measure remained virtually unchanged, including Romney’s very thin lead in the national polls.

DAILY DASH

10/22
10/23
10/24
10/25
10/26







National Polls
Obama
42.9
47.0
47.5
47.3
47.2

Romney
43.4
47.9
47.4
47.7
47.6

Difference
-0.4
-0.9
0.2
-0.4
-0.3







Obameter

6.7
5.9
5.6
5.4
3.6














Charisma Factor

-0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-2.3
-3.7














Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2
2
2
2
2
Nevada
6
3
2
2
3
2
Wisconsin
10
5
5
2
2
3
Iowa
6
3
2
-1
-1
2
Colorado
9
-1
-1
-1
-4
1
Virginia
13
-3
-3
-3
-2
1
New Hampshire
4
3
2
1
1
2
Florida
29
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2







Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
44
44
38
38
66

Obama
281
281
275
275
303








Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
51
51
57
57
29

Romney
257
257
263
263
235







Senate
Democrat
53
53
53
52
52
Projection
Republican
47
47
47
48
48







Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
7
7
6
6
6
Ohio
Brown-Martel
6
8
6
6
5
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
6
4
4
4
4
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
7
7
8
8
5
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
1
1
1
1
1
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
1
1
1
1
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
4
4
4
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
4
4
6
6
6
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-10
-5
-5
-5
-5
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-7
-7
-7
-3
-3
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5







House
Democrat
200
200
200
200
200
Projection
Republican
235
232
232
232
232

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