Daily Dash...A Good Swing State Day For Obama (October 26, 2012)

Daily Dash 10/26	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Romney	0.3
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	3.6
Charisma Factor	Romney	3.7
Senate	Dems	52-48
House	Repubs	232-200

It was a good day in the swing state polls for President Obama.  There were four new polls in Colorado, and they showed Obama at +4, +3, +1 and tied.  This flipped a state that had been in Romney’s camp, based on prior recent polling, back to Obama.  Virginia was also a switcher....four new polls today showed Obama +5, +2, +2 and tied.  So now 7 out of the 8 swing states are in the blue. 

And there were three new polls in Ohio that had Obama at +4, +2 and +2.  There have been a total of nine polls in Ohio in the last week, and Obama was ahead in seven and tied in two.  He maintains this lead despite Romney visiting the Buckeye state 17 times in October.

Based on these and other polls, Obama increased his lead to 303-235 in my Electoral College projector.  All other measure remained virtually unchanged, including Romney’s very thin lead in the national polls.

DAILY DASH		10/22	10/23	10/24	10/25	10/26
National Polls	Obama	42.9	47.0	47.5	47.3	47.2
	Romney	43.4	47.9	47.4	47.7	47.6
	Difference	-0.4	-0.9	0.2	-0.4	-0.3
Obameter		6.7	5.9	5.6	5.4	3.6
Charisma Factor		-0.3	-0.8	-0.8	-2.3	-3.7
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2	2	2	2	2
Nevada	6	3	2	2	3	2
Wisconsin	10	5	5	2	2	3
Iowa	6	3	2	-1	-1	2
Colorado	9	-1	-1	-1	-4	1
Virginia	13	-3	-3	-3	-2	1
New Hampshire	4	3	2	1	1	2
Florida	29	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	44	44	38	38	66
	Obama	281	281	275	275	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	51	51	57	57	29
	Romney	257	257	263	263	235
Senate	Democrat	53	53	53	52	52
Projection	Republican	47	47	47	48	48
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	7	7	6	6	6
Ohio	Brown-Martel	6	8	6	6	5
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	6	4	4	4	4
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	7	7	8	8	5
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	1	1	1	1	1
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	1	1	1	1	1
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	4	4	4	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	4	4	6	6	6
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-10	-5	-5	-5	-5
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-7	-7	-7	-3	-3
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5
House	Democrat	200	200	200	200	200
Projection	Republican	235	232	232	232	232