Senate Update....Takeover? What Takeover? (October 16, 2012)

A funny thing happened on the way to the Republican takeover of Congress.  It’s called the Senate.  The Republicans are not going to win the Senate.  In fact, I don’t think they are going to win any additional seats.  They might even lose one, maybe two.

In the current 113^th Congress, the Democrats hold 51 seats, plus two Independents (Lieberman of Connecticut and Sanders of Vermont) sit with their caucus, so they hold a 53-47edge.  I currently have them picking up one seat, for a 54-46 edge in the new 113^th Congress.

The Republicans certainly have the advantage coming in.  Only 33 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested; of the 67 NOT contested, the Republicans hold 37 of these seats, while the Democrats hold only 30.  But 15 of the 33 are sure things for the Democrats, versus only six for the Republicans.  And the 12 toss-up states are breaking the Democrats way as of now, 9 to 3.  And that adds up to 54-46 for the Democrats.

	Democrats	Republicans
Not up for reelection	30	37
Solid	15	6
Toss Up Leaning	9	3
Total	54	46

This is not getting much attention in the glare of the razor-thin margin of the Presidential election, but it is extremely significant, of course.  Many Republicans have been privately arguing – at least up to the first debate – that, given the state of the economy, Obama should have been easy to take out, and that a stronger candidate (Christie, Daniels, Bush, etc.) would have been a lock.  That rationale is harder to support if they make no progress on the Senate (or the House).

My previous claim that it all might come down to Angus King of Maine no longer seems relevant.  King, you may recall, is the independent former Governor of Maine who will easily win the Senate seat left vacant by Olympia Snowe’s retirement.  He has not declared with which party he will caucus, leaving the delicious possibility that the Senate majority could be decided by his decision on where he sits.  But now it looks like the Democrats will maintain the majority without needing him (and he is almost certain to sit with them, anyway.)

The Toss-Ups

Let’s look at those 12 toss-up states. 

								DEMS		REPS
								54	0	46
	Dem	Rep	Ind.	Latest Polling %			Dem	Toss Up	Toss	Toss Up	Rep
	Cand.	Cand.	Cand.	Dem	Rep	Mrgn	Solid	Dem	Up	Rep	Solid
							45	9	0	3	43
Democrats Not Up							30
Democrats Solid							15
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin		49	43	6		1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel		47	42	5		1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon		51	46	5		1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith		47	42	5		1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson		49	46	3		1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen		48	45	3		1
Arizona	Carmona	Flake		45	42	3		1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown		48	46	2		1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg		47	46	1		1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg		47	47	0				1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller		42	45	-3				1
Indiana	Donnelley	Mourdock		42	47	-5				1
Republicans Solid											6
Republicans Not Up											37

The five highest visibility races are…

·        Massachusetts.  The Democrats are trying to take back Ted Kennedy’s old seat, now held by Republican Scott Brown, who shockingly won the special election in 2010.  Elizabeth Warren of consumer protection fame heads the Democratic ticket, and had held a steady lead for months, but now leads by only 2 points.

·        Virginia.  This is a heavyweight battle between former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine and former Republican Senator and Governor George Allen.  (Allen was the one whose Presidential aspirations in 2008 were derailed by his calling an opponent’s staff member a “micaca” and failing to extricate himself from that mess gracefully.)  Kaine leads by only 3 points in a hard fought race.

·         Missouri.  Claire McCaskill, the Democratic incumbent, barely won in 2006 and has long been viewed as highly vulnerable.  That is, of course, until challenger Todd Akin opened his mouth with his incredible “legitimate rape” comments in August. This should have been an easy win for the GOP, but McCaskill is now +6.

·         Connecticut.  World Wrestling Federation mogul Linda McMahon is at it again; after losing the Governor’s race a few years ago she is trying to buy, that is, win the Senate seat vacated by the retiring Lieberman.  But Democratic Representative Chris Murphy has pulled into a 5 point lead.

·         Ohio.   Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown seems to have a solid 5-point lead over youthful state treasurer Republican Josh Mandel.

The other races…

·        Nevada.   Republican incumbent Dean Heller is challenged by Democratic Congresswomen Shelley Berkeley.  Berkeley has been hit with an ill-timed ethics charge but is now within 3 points of Heller.

·         Montana.  Only a point separate Democratic incumbent Jon Tester; who won his first term in a squeaker in 2006, and Representative Denny Rehberg, who could still very easily prevail.

·         North Dakota.  The Republicans thought they had a sure win here, but former state attorney general Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is proving to be a charismatic campaigner and giving Representative Rick Berg all he can handle.  This is a dead heat but I still see Camp pulling it out.

·         Wisconsin.  Democratic Representative Tammy Baldwin is 3 points ahead of big name former Republican Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson.

·         Pennsylvania.  Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey has a clear, though shrinking lead over Republican Tom Smith.

It is, of course, possible that strong Romney coattails could pull four of the Democratic-leaning seats into the Republican winner’s column on Election Day and give “total control” to the GOP.  But I don’t think that is going to happen.