Daily Dash...Yesterday: It Couldn't Be Tighter; Today: Even Tighter (October 24, 2012)

DAILY DASH		10/22	10/23	10/24		Comments
National Polls	Obama	42.9	47.0	47.5		Three polls moved ever so slightly
	Romney	43.4	47.9	47.4		towards Obama to nudge him just ahead
	Difference	-0.4	-0.9	0.2		of Romney in the national polls.
Obameter		6.7	5.9	6.3		The Obameter was steady.
Charisma Factor		-0.3	-0.8	-0.8		No new polls to update the Charisma Factor,
						which remains a tad in Romney's favor.
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2	2	2		Iowa flipped to Romney, barely, and now
Nevada	6	3	2	2		the eight swing states are split evenly,
Wisconsin	10	4	4	2		four each.  But note the tight margins!
Iowa	6	3	2	-1
Colorado	9	-1	-1	-1		If Romney picked Nevada, and Obama
Virginia	13	-3	-3	-3		and Romney held ther other states, we
New Hampshire	4	3	2	1		would have a 269-269 tie.
Florida	29	-2	-2	-2
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237		Obama maintains a narrowing lead in the
Projection	Swing Obama	44	44	38		electoral college, with a 275-263
	Obama	281	281	275		advantage.  Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.
	Solid Romney	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	51	51	57
	Romney	257	257	263
Senate	Democrat	53	53	53		The Senate forecast remains for the
Projection	Republican	47	47	47		Democrats to retain their majority with
						no net gains or losses.
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	7	7	6		New polls have shown marginal changes
Ohio	Brown-Martel	6	8	6		to the races.  The most recent polls
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	6	4	4		show that 9 of these races have a 4+
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	7	7	8		point margin, and only three are truly
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	1	1	2		"toss ups."
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	1	1	1
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	4	4	4
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	4	4	6
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-10	-5	-5
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-7	-7	-7
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	-5	-5	-5
House	Democrat	200	200	200		No new House update today.
Projection	Republican	235	232	232