Swing State Pres

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Daily Dash...Yesterday: It Couldn't Be Tighter; Today: Even Tighter (October 24, 2012)

DAILY DASH

10/22
10/23
10/24

                   Comments







National Polls
Obama
42.9
47.0
47.5

Three polls moved ever so slightly

Romney
43.4
47.9
47.4

towards Obama to nudge him just ahead

Difference
-0.4
-0.9
0.2

of Romney in the national polls.







Obameter

6.7
5.9
6.3

The Obameter was steady.














Charisma Factor

-0.3
-0.8
-0.8

No new polls to update the Charisma Factor,






which remains a tad in Romney's favor.







Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-


Ohio
18
2
2
2

Iowa flipped to Romney, barely, and now
Nevada
6
3
2
2

the eight swing states are split evenly,
Wisconsin
10
4
4
2

four each.  But note the tight margins!
Iowa
6
3
2
-1


Colorado
9
-1
-1
-1

If Romney picked Nevada, and Obama
Virginia
13
-3
-3
-3

and Romney held ther other states, we
New Hampshire
4
3
2
1

would have a 269-269 tie.
Florida
29
-2
-2
-2









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237

Obama maintains a narrowing lead in the
Projection
Swing Obama
44
44
38

electoral college, with a 275-263

Obama
281
281
275

advantage.  Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.








Solid Romney
206
206
206



Swing Romney
51
51
57



Romney
257
257
263









Senate
Democrat
53
53
53

The Senate forecast remains for the
Projection
Republican
47
47
47

Democrats to retain their majority with






no net gains or losses.
Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-


Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
7
7
6

New polls have shown marginal changes
Ohio
Brown-Martel
6
8
6

to the races.  The most recent polls
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
6
4
4

show that 9 of these races have a 4+
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
7
7
8

point margin, and only three are truly
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
1
1
2

"toss ups."
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
1
1


Arizona
Carmona-Flake
4
4
4


Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
4
4
6


Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0


North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-10
-5
-5


Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-7
-7
-7


Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
-5
-5









House
Democrat
200
200
200

No new House update today.
Projection
Republican
235
232
232







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