Dashboard Update...Those Swing States Never Seem to Swing Red (October 1, 2012)

“Swing states,” by definition, can swing either way, right?  But in this campaign, Obama has consistently led in most, albeit quite narrowly at times.  Not much swinging has been going on…and less so now.  With the latest series of Romney-gaffes fully registering in the realm of public opinion, Obama is, well, surging.  And certain crucial swing states are so blue they may go the way of Pennsylvania and Michigan, the type of deep blue that renders a state more “safe” than “swing.”

And thus, we may never know if Ann Romney’s concerns would have been realized.  Over the weekend, Ann was interviewed by KTVN in Reno, Nevada.  She was asked what her biggest worry was assuming her husband won the election.  Her answer?  “You know, I think my biggest concern, obviously, would just be for his mental well-being."  Probably not the answer Mitt wanted her to give. 

Whatever Romney wants to call it (he appears to dislike the term “turnaround” when it applies to his campaign), it must begin with the first of the three Presidential debates this coming Wednesday night.  (There is also a VP debate, next week, on October 11^th.)  Playing for a cautious draw ain’t gonna butter the biscuit for Mitt…he has to go on offense and take it to Obama, and commit no gaffes along the way.  Very tall order.

Let’s get to the numbers.

Swing States.   I’ve kept the list at the same ten swing states, although Ohio and Wisconsin, with 7-point Obama margins, are slipping out of reach for Romney.  In fact, they are in the range of a number of states I do not consider swing states, such as Michigan (Obama +9), Minnesota (+8), New Mexico (+8), Oregon (+9) and Pennsylvania (+8).  Romney is basically not contesting any of  those states with ad money or appearances. 

And, I could make the case that Arizona (Romney +6.5) and Montana (Romney +7) are perilously close to coming into play for Obama…that is, potentially becoming swing states.  Stay tuned.

Obama now leads in 9 of the 10, with North Carolina swinging now in his favor.  Missouri alone remains in the Romney camp.  I’m not sure Missouri is a swing state either, since it has been for Romney for virtually the entire campaign, and if it’s stuck with him this far, it’s hard to see a 6-point lead evaporating. 

1-Oct	Electoral	Polling	Since	17-Sep
10 states	Votes	Obama	Romney	Obama +/-
Wisconsin	10	51.3	44.0	7.3
Ohio	18	50.3	43.4	6.9
Colorado	9	50.5	45.5	5.0
Florida	29	50.2	45.8	4.4
Nevada	6	49.0	45.0	4.0
North Carolina	15	48.5	45.5	3.0
New Hampshire	4	48.7	45.7	3.0
Virginia	13	47.5	45.5	2.0
Iowa	6	47.7	45.7	2.0
Missouri	10	44.0	50.0	-6.0
	120			3.6

So the math is quite compelling.  Obama has 237 solid electoral votes, from true blue states.  If you give him Ohio and Wisconsin, that takes Obama up to 265 electoral votes.  That means he needs only one more swing state (unless it is tiny New Hampshire, which only has 4 electoral votes) to get him to the magic 270.  Only one…out of Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina…and he leads in all of them by 2-4 points.

Overall Obama’s swing state lead in 3.6 points, the highest level we have seen to date.  Thus his projected electoral college margin is very large, and at this point growing.

	Solid	Swing	Total
Obama	237	110	347
Romney	181	10	191

The Obameter.  The Obameter is now at a “record” +21.9.  This is on the strength of a new consumer confidence report which showed a large increase from roughly 60 to 70, with the other measures either the same or showing very modest variation.  The consumer confidence mark is now above the “baseline” January number. 

OBAMETER	Baseline
	1-Jan	16-Sep	23-Sep	30-Sep
Unemployment Rate	8.7	8.1	8.1	8.1
Consumer Confidence	65.0	60.6	60.6	70.3
Price of Gas (average for week)	3.32	3.90	3.88	3.89
Dow-Jones (average for week)	12,076	13,406	13,535	13,471
Romney Favorability (average)	38.0	44.5	44.7	45.7
"Events"	0	10	10	10
Unemployment Rate	8.7	6	6	6
Consumer Confidence	65	-4	-4	5
Price of Gas (average for week)	3.32	-6	-6	-6
Dow-Jones (average for week)	12,076	13	15	14
Romney Favorability (average)	38	-7	-7	-8
"Events"	0	10	10	10
OBAMETER	0.0	12.6	13.9	21.9
Obama versus Romney	1.1	3.4	3.6	4.5

Latest National Polling.  The rising Obameter is consistent with Obama’s expanding lead in the national polls as well.  The improving macro environment, coupled with the full impact of Romney’s various gaffes, has propelled Obama into a 4.5 point lead in the national polls, with Obama inching even closer to the 50% mark, which he does not need to win (third party candidates will chew up a point or two) but would certainly be an important pre-Election Day marker.

	Nat'l Polls
Obama	48.5%
Romney	44.0%
Diff	4.5%

The Charisma Factor.   Romney continues to be net negative, unheard of for a presidential candidate at this stage of the game.  One can safely conclude that Romney has been examined carefully and the majority of voters simply do not like him.  That bodes poorly for Election Day voting decisions among undecideds, who tend to vote for the person they’d rather have a beer with.

Obama’s net positive of +7.3 yields a “Charisma Factor” of +10.3, a commanding lead and an election day asset.

Obama	52.0	44.7	7.3
Romney	45.7	48.7	-3.0
Net			10.3

Popular Vote Projection.  My projection of Obama’s national popular vote lead is now almost 4 full points.

	Vote	%
Obama	66,714,804	51.3%
Romney	61,283,393	47.1%
Other	1,988,683	1.5%

As always, comments welcome!