Monday, October 22, 2012
The Daily Dash Debuts...and the Race is Closer Than Ever (October 22, 2012)
Just 15 days to go, and as we head down the home stretch, we unveil the “Daily Dash,” which will track all the www.obameter2012.com key stats on a daily basis from now until Election Day. In addition to the usual commentary, I’ll post updated stats by 7 PM every evening, up-to-the-minute with the latest in polling, economic and other critical election data for all races.
Today’s Daily Dash, on the day of the last Presidential debate, shows minor changes since last week, but enough for a bit more red to creep into the chart. It appears that while Obama stopped the bleeding with his strong second debate performance, there was no bounce (back to blue) to be had.
The national polls – now 11 of them! – show a slight Romney edge, with about 6% still either undecided or supporting a third party candidate.
The Obameter nudged up due to a drop in gas prices and an uptick in the stock market.
There was only one new “favorability” poll and it went Romney’s way (before the second debate)…just enough to nudge the Charisma Factor into the red…wow.
But on to the main event...Obama continues to hold leads in five out of the eight swing states, most significantly, of course, in
. There is every indication that as Ohio goes, so goes this election. Obama’s lead in Ohio Wisconsin and expanded slightly. Romney held Iowa Florida and . Virginia
Romney has edged ahead in
Colorado, but a new poll in shows a swing back to Obama. New Hampshire
Thus, where it counts, in the electoral college projection,
Obama maintains his lead, 281-257. That is, as long as he keeps
Ohio and it 18 and secures 15 others from, say, Nevada, Wisconsin and or New Hampshire. Iowa
I have not updated the House for several weeks but will get to that soon. Nothing I’ve seen indicates there is any chance of the Democrats taking over the House.