Swing State Pres

Monday, October 22, 2012

The Daily Dash Debuts...and the Race is Closer Than Ever (October 22, 2012)

Just 15 days to go, and as we head down the home stretch, we unveil the “Daily Dash,” which will track all the www.obameter2012.com key stats on a daily basis from now until Election Day.  In addition to the usual commentary, I’ll post updated stats by 7 PM every evening, up-to-the-minute with the latest in polling, economic and other critical election data for all races.

Today’s Daily Dash, on the day of the last Presidential debate, shows minor changes since last week, but enough for a bit more red to creep into the chart.  It appears that while Obama stopped the bleeding with his strong second debate performance, there was no bounce (back to blue) to be had.

DAILY DASH

10/15
10/22




National Polls
Obama
47.4
46.8

Romney
46.6
47.3

Diff
0.8
-0.5




Obameter

5.8
6.7




Charisma Factor

0.6
-0.3




Swing States
Elec. Vts.
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
3
2
Nevada
6
2
3
Wisconsin
10
2
4
Iowa
6
1
3
Colorado
9
0
-1
Virginia
13
-2
-3
New Hampshire
4
-2
3
Florida
29
-3
-2




Electoral College
Solid Obama
286
237
Projection
Swing Obama
49
44

Obama
286
281





Solid Romney
206
206

Swing Romney
46
51

Romney
252
257




Senate
Dem
54
53
Projection
Rep
46
47




House
Dem
200
200
Projection
Rep
235
235

The national polls – now 11 of them! – show a slight Romney edge, with about 6% still either undecided or supporting a third party candidate.

The Obameter nudged up due to a drop in gas prices and an uptick in the stock market. 

There was only one new “favorability” poll and it went Romney’s way (before the second debate)…just enough to nudge the Charisma Factor into the red…wow.

But on to the main event...Obama continues to hold leads in five out of the eight swing states, most significantly, of course, in Ohio.  There is every indication that as Ohio goes, so goes this election.  Obama’s lead in Wisconsin and Iowa expanded slightly.  Romney held Florida and Virginia.

Romney has edged ahead in Colorado, but a new poll in New Hampshire shows a swing back to Obama. 

Thus, where it counts, in the electoral college projection,
Obama maintains his lead, 281-257.  That is, as long as he keeps Ohio and it 18 and secures 15 others from, say, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa or New Hampshire.

In the Senate, Montana slipped into the Republican column, while the Democrats held onto 8 of the 12 elections “in play” and thus their majority.

I have not updated the House for several weeks but will get to that soon.  Nothing I’ve seen indicates there is any chance of the Democrats taking over the House.

1 comment:

  1. what's with the dial? arrogantly stuck on ??

    ReplyDelete

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