Swing State Pres

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Daily Dash...No Changes (October 27, 2012)


Daily Dash 10/26
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Romney
0.3
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
3.6
Charisma Factor
 Romney
3.7
Senate
Dems
52-48
House
Repubs
232-200



Little change today as there were only a few new national polls.  Romney remains a tad ahead on the national polls, obviously well within the MOE, while Obama leads in 7 of 8 swing states.

Should be a wild last week before Election Day….




DAILY DASH

10/22
10/23
10/24
10/25
10/26
10/27








National Polls
Obama
42.9
47.0
47.5
47.3
47.2
47.2

Romney
43.4
47.9
47.4
47.7
47.6
47.5

Difference
-0.4
-0.9
0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3








Obameter

6.7
5.9
5.6
5.4
3.6
3.6
















Charisma Factor

-0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-2.3
-3.7
-3.7
















Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2
2
2
2
2
2
Nevada
6
3
2
2
3
2
2
Wisconsin
10
5
5
2
2
3
3
Iowa
6
3
2
-1
-1
2
2
Colorado
9
-1
-1
-1
-4
1
1
Virginia
13
-3
-3
-3
-2
1
1
New Hampshire
4
3
2
1
1
2
2
Florida
29
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2








Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
44
44
38
38
66
66

Obama
281
281
275
275
303
303









Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
51
51
57
57
29
29

Romney
257
257
263
263
235
235








Senate
Democrat
53
53
53
52
52
52
Projection
Republican
47
47
47
48
48
48








Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
7
7
6
6
6
6
Ohio
Brown-Martel
6
8
6
6
5
5
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
6
4
4
4
4
4
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
7
7
8
8
5
5
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
1
1
1
1
1
1
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
1
1
1
1
1
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
4
4
4
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
4
4
6
6
6
6
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
0
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-10
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-7
-7
-7
-3
-3
-3
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5








House
Democrat
200
200
200
200
200
200
Projection
Republican
235
232
232
232
232
232


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