Swing State Pres

Monday, October 29, 2012

Daily Dash...Small But Clear Movement to Obama (October 29, 2012)

I’m doing an early “Daily Dash” today as Sandy begins to close in on us.  So, I’m posting while the people have the power…

Daily Dash 10/29
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Romney
0.5
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
2.6
Charisma Factor
 Romney
3.8
Senate
Dems
52-48
House
Repubs
232-200
Over the past few days we have seen a small but perceptible movement back to Obama.  He now leads the national polls by a 0.4 points, a swing of +1.3 points in the last week, since the night of the final debate.  He also has small but persistent leads in 7 of the 8 swing states.  While the margins are all within the MOE, it has been the longstanding pattern. The inability of Romney to breakthrough and claim a steady lead in any swing state – except Florida -- is a major story, and obviously bodes well for an Obama win.  (And Florida is tightening.)


BUT -- we have several events that could shape the final week materially.

Most important is the Friday jobs report.  If the unemployment rate suddenly jumps back up to 8%+, that could be a significant October (actually November) Surprise that could tilt enough swing votes to Romney.  The 3rd quarter GDP rate of 2% released last week was actually a good number for Obama…it was consistent with the “steady progress” theme of economic recovery.  A number of 1.5% or less would have supported the Romney narrative of “stuck.”  A similar set of outcomes could ensue from the jobs report.

Less important but still worth considering is Hurricane Sandy. My general feeling is that Sandy could hurt Obama more than Romney, for several reasons.  One, Sandy is already dampening  early voting, which has been running in Obama’s favor thus far.  Two, Obama must hold off from campaigning, or at least the relentless campaigning that he would normally be doing.  He risks not finding the right balance between the requirements of the presidency (that is, acting Presidential in a major natural disaster) and those of the campaign.  And third, the vaunted Obama ground game, the get-out-the-vote machine, is compromised in Virginia and New Hampshire.  Romney’s ground game is affected too, of course, but I think Obama needs it more.

Having said all that, I think the affect will be small and maybe not even material.

DAILY DASH

10/23
10/24
10/25
10/26
10/27
10/28
10/29









National Polls
Obama
47.0
47.5
47.3
47.3
47.3
47.5
47.8

Romney
47.9
47.4
47.6
47.5
47.4
47.1
47.4

Difference
-0.9
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.4









Obameter

5.9
5.6
5.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
2.6









Charisma Factor

-0.8
-0.8
-2.3
-3.7
-3.7
-3.7
-3.8









Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
Nevada
6
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
Wisconsin
10
5
2
2
3
3
3
3
Iowa
6
2
-1
-1
2
2
3
3
Colorado
9
-1
-1
-4
1
1
2
2
Virginia
13
-3
-3
-2
1
1
1
1
New Hampshire
4
2
1
1
2
2
0.3
0.3
Florida
29
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
44
38
38
66
66
66
66

Obama
281
275
275
303
303
303
303










Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
51
57
57
29
29
29
29

Romney
257
263
263
235
235
235
235









Senate
Democrat
53
53
52
52
52
52
52
Projection
Republican
47
47
48
48
48
48
48









Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
7
6
6
4
4
4
4
Ohio
Brown-Martel
8
6
6
5
5
3
4
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
7
8
8
5
5
5
4
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
4
4
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
4
6
6
6
6
6
4
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-7
-7
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5









House
Democrat
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Projection
Republican
232
232
232
232
232
232
232



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