Daily Dash...Small But Clear Movement to Obama (October 29, 2012)

I’m doing an early “Daily Dash” today as Sandy begins to close in on us.  So, I’m posting while the people have the power…

Daily Dash 10/29	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Romney	0.5
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	2.6
Charisma Factor	Romney	3.8
Senate	Dems	52-48
House	Repubs	232-200

Over the past few days we have seen a small but perceptible movement back to Obama.  He now leads the national polls by a 0.4 points, a swing of +1.3 points in the last week, since the night of the final debate.  He also has small but persistent leads in 7 of the 8 swing states.  While the margins are all within the MOE, it has been the longstanding pattern. The inability of Romney to breakthrough and claim a steady lead in any swing state – except Florida -- is a major story, and obviously bodes well for an Obama win.  (And Florida is tightening.)

BUT -- we have several events that could shape the final week materially.

Most important is the Friday jobs report.  If the unemployment rate suddenly jumps back up to 8%+, that could be a significant October (actually November) Surprise that could tilt enough swing votes to Romney.  The 3^rd quarter GDP rate of 2% released last week was actually a good number for Obama…it was consistent with the “steady progress” theme of economic recovery.  A number of 1.5% or less would have supported the Romney narrative of “stuck.”  A similar set of outcomes could ensue from the jobs report.

Less important but still worth considering is Hurricane Sandy. My general feeling is that Sandy could hurt Obama more than Romney, for several reasons.  One, Sandy is already dampening  early voting, which has been running in Obama’s favor thus far.  Two, Obama must hold off from campaigning, or at least the relentless campaigning that he would normally be doing.  He risks not finding the right balance between the requirements of the presidency (that is, acting Presidential in a major natural disaster) and those of the campaign.  And third, the vaunted Obama ground game, the get-out-the-vote machine, is compromised in Virginia and New Hampshire.  Romney’s ground game is affected too, of course, but I think Obama needs it more.

Having said all that, I think the affect will be small and maybe not even material.

DAILY DASH		10/23	10/24	10/25	10/26	10/27	10/28	10/29
National Polls	Obama	47.0	47.5	47.3	47.3	47.3	47.5	47.8
	Romney	47.9	47.4	47.6	47.5	47.4	47.1	47.4
	Difference	-0.9	0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	0.4	0.4
Obameter		5.9	5.6	5.4	3.6	3.6	3.6	2.6
Charisma Factor		-0.8	-0.8	-2.3	-3.7	-3.7	-3.7	-3.8
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	2
Nevada	6	2	2	3	2	2	2	2
Wisconsin	10	5	2	2	3	3	3	3
Iowa	6	2	-1	-1	2	2	3	3
Colorado	9	-1	-1	-4	1	1	2	2
Virginia	13	-3	-3	-2	1	1	1	1
New Hampshire	4	2	1	1	2	2	0.3	0.3
Florida	29	-2	-2	-1	-2	-2	-1	-1
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	44	38	38	66	66	66	66
	Obama	281	275	275	303	303	303	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	51	57	57	29	29	29	29
	Romney	257	263	263	235	235	235	235
Senate	Democrat	53	53	52	52	52	52	52
Projection	Republican	47	47	48	48	48	48	48
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	7	6	6	4	4	4	4
Ohio	Brown-Martel	8	6	6	5	5	3	4
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	4	4	4	4	4	4	6
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	7	8	8	5	5	5	4
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	1	1	1	1	2	2	2
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	4	4	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	4	6	6	6	6	6	4
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-7	-7	-3	-3	-3	-3	-3
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5
House	Democrat	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
Projection	Republican	232	232	232	232	232	232	232